The next President of the USA will be just like the last one

Don’t worry Otto, the next Prez of the USA will be just like the ones before him or her.

I know the US well, it’s my adopted home, I know the big cities and small towns, New England to the Deep South, the Midwest, Texas and California too. In terms of the presidential elections everything you hear up to this summer is mostly noise, it’s internal party politics up to the conventions where the 2 main parties formally choose their candidate for president.

There’s a better chance of the Rio Madre de Dios freezing over in Puerto than there is a chance of Donald Trump becoming the next President of the USA. It’s not going to happen, ever.

I don’t have a dog in this fight but the next Prez of the US will be someone like Hillary Clinton, John Kasich or Michael Bloomberg. Throw in Marco Rubio or Joe Biden if you will. More importantly, nothing will change whoever is elected next. The most “radical” of the current crop of candidates who actually stands a chance of winning it all is probably Bernie Sanders and should he be elected, there’s no way he could push his leading ideas (free college tuition, universal healthcare and the like) through the US Congress.

4 thoughts on “The next President of the USA will be just like the last one

  1. I would like to agree with you, and not too many months ago I predicted it’d be Bush-Clinton race. But I’m not sure anymore. There is something in the air back in the States. You and I have been gone a long time. I think the internet and cable news have further segregated the ideologies to the point there is very little crossover.

    It’s starting to look like a brokered convention on each side is the only way to avoid Sanders v. Trump or Sanders v. Cruz. I hope I’m wrong.

    • I’m in the US regularly nowadays and I agree with you that there is “something in the air” and this election will be very interesting to watch. Both Sanders and Trump have done a good job of identifying a strong sentiment of frustration among key demographics, such as working class whites and younger voters. However, I think the fanning of ideologies is targeted to the “masses” only, the establishment at the top largely wines and dines together. Off-camera I think the business/political elites are a rather homogeneous club – happy to let their talking heads do the dirty work “divide and conquer”.

      There’s always talk of a brokered convention but this time I agree we could actually see one, possibly even at both party conventions. Should Trump end up with the largest number of delegates I think the GOP will nominate someone else and on the side of the Democrats I think there has to be a realization very soon that both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders (for different reasons) would have significant challenges in a general election. Both parties have people who are not currently in the race but, in my opinion, would do much better in a general election.

      Alternatively this might be the beginning of a re-definition of party structures. Although US election rules strongly favor a 2-party system it could be said that strong political party structures are on the decline around the world. If the traditional party nominees were Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, a third-party ticket such as Joe Biden + Nikki Haley all of a sudden looks very electable.

      I think the election will be very interesting to watch but in the end I expect very little change in high level policy.

      • For most of my life I listed to fellow Americans — the informed ones, that is — complain about the two-party system. They say they want more options. Given you would never see an anti-gun, pro-business candidate or a liberal candidate who wants to check the power of public employee unions, I generally agreed. But that was before I saw politics in countries without strong political parties (Peru!).

        Ask the average Peruvian about the policy platforms of Fuerza Popular, APRA or Peru Posible, and the vast majority will have no idea. Aside from a few which don’t have contenders for president, I’m not sure I know.

        It has been a reminder on the importance of established political parties with well-defined platforms.

  2. Pingback: When Joe Biden and Mitt Romney had lunch | Life in Peru

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